Two regular surveys which track recruitment intentions of employers, are continuing to warn that a ‘jobs light’ or even a ‘jobless recovery’ is the most likely prospect in store for the UK’s economy.

Both the latest CIPD/KPMG Labour Market Outlook survey and the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey have found that employers are not rushing to expand their workforces, although the economy appears to be creeping out of recession at last. 

The CIPD/KPMG survey found that just under two-thirds (63 per cent) of the nearly 750 employers they surveyed expected to recruit in the three months to April. However, in the majority of cases it will be to maintain current headcount levels, not to expand them.  In fact, there were more employers expecting to reduce staff numbers than increase them, leading to a net employment intentions balance of minus five per cent for the first quarter of 2010. 

Just over one in four (26 per cent) of those surveyed were planning redundancies and the proportion of their workforces at risk (6.2 per cent) had increased compared with the 3.8 per cent reported in the last survey.

Manpower’s survey found that employers in East Anglia were more likely to increase staffing levels during the coming three months, whilst those in the West Midlands were least likely to do so.  Improvement was also noted amongst the hiring intentions of employers in the North West, South East, Yorkshire and Humberside, and Wales.

In sectoral terms, employers in four of the nine industry sectors tracked by the survey (Utilities; Finance and Business Services; Manufacturing; Agriculture) are forecasting headcount growth during the second quarter.

Commenting on the finding, Mark Cahill, Managing Director of Manpower UK, said: “Labour markets the world over will take time to find their feet in 2010 and in the UK, we may see some further increases in unemployment levels although we still believe we will not hit three million unemployed as originally predicted. 

“‘UK plc has learnt hard lessons from previous recessions, but this time around we’re seeing different trends emerge: for instance, employers are postponing hiring commitments until sustainable demand re-emerges, rather than engaging in anticipatory hiring.  They are also implementing well-managed, complementary, flexible workforces, which is a prudent choice as they adjust to post-recession conditions.”